I am new never use bitcoin .. i am from bangladesh .. and i find coinbase and those kind of site didnt let me convert bitcoin to real money So can anyone tell me where i can buy and sell bitcoin instantly ??? as far i read most of them are scam ... those exchanger ... Who give instant and automated .. convert of bitcoin and no scam :D
iOS app to track certain amounts of litecoin and bitcoin, and convert said amounts into real money value?
Hey. I have my coins in multiple different places for reasons. And I also use GDAX which doesn’t support GBP trades so I can’t see a real time real money value. Are there any apps where I can stick in the total amount of Bitcoin and Litecoin that I hold and get a real time GBP value from it? I don’t want a wallet, just something that watches these values for me.
I want to share my 2017 crypto market experience for anyone who wants to read it, I was one of the greedy guys who knew nothing about trading and still made a potential ton, then lost it all due to, well... Being greedy and knowing nothing about trading.
This does not really bother me much, but I haven't been able to stop thinking about it either, what could have been, I will try to be as brief as posible: Back in 2011-2016 I was working as a software developer freelancer, back then I lived in Venezuela, and mostly used paypal to charge clients, paypal would constantly limit my account, but I would get it back after submitting documents and a bit of begging, this was the only way I could receive payments from international clients, and basically the single point of failure in the process of delivering my work and getting paid, if paypal permanently banned me I would be completely screwed. About 2015-2016 my paypal got limited permanently, no reason stated, I thought it was really unfair as I only received payments from business in countries like the US or Canada, no sketchy money entering my account, anyway, when this happened I became incredibly stressed and depressed, all I could think was I wouldn't be able to feed my family anymore, and what would I do if an emergency happened that same day or week or however long it took me to figure out how to receive payments again through another method, all I had was held in my paypal account, so I had nothing to defend myself in the meantime. Anyway, it took me about a week of constant reading to realize I could convince a few clients to buy crypto for me, I lost about 60% out of my stream of income due to clients ditching me as they didn't want the bother of purchasing crypto just to pay a freelancer they could replace for one that was easier to work with, I used localbitcoins to sell the bitcoins I got for national currency so that I could purchase what I needed, I was not really able to stock up on some bitcoin as an investment as I spent everything I earned due to sustaining my almost the entirety of my immediate family. Fast forward to 2016 or 2017, and I start to try out purchasing bits of crypto, and trying to time the market to make a little bit more, doing this somehow I managed to convert about $100, into $400-$500 in a matter of a few months. Then hits late 2017, around august I believe, when everyone was purchasing alts like crazy even if they were scams, most people were blinded by greed, me included, it was at that point that I decided to drop work for a few weeks to see if I could make some good profit out of the state of the market, and so I took those $400 or $500, and started to daily trade with it, making 20% sometimes, 30% or 50%, as well as sometimes losing everything I had done during the day, a few of the trades I remember doing was purchasing LTC, XRP, IOTA, BCH and a few more right before they 2x or 3x in price, I was doing swing trades with the entirety of my portfolio, because I realized I could earn more that way, so if I had 5k total in crypto, I would do the swing trade with the entirety of it, and either lose $1000 or make $1000 if it moved 20% in either direction, my only real strategy was to read up on most recent trading discussions on a few social media, which was no strategy at all, I was just being reckless, I remember I could only sleep 2 hours every night because I was afraid of losing everything while being asleep, I set a bunch of alerts, was stressed, didn't want to talk to relatives nor anyone because I would feel like dying when losing 10% or 20% out of my portfolio when it grew to a certain point. Anyway, at some point I got up to $20k, or $25k, then decided to put it all in XML because I had read some discussions on it, and realized people seemed to really like it, don't remember exactly what was my entry price, but when XLM almost got up to $0.70 - $1 a few days or weeks later, my portfolio was worth $130k, and it remained that way for a whole 24 hours or so, If I remember correctly My heart was racing, I thought for sure I was going to make it $1m at some point Then, of course, everything started to crash hard... just a few days later my portfolio was worth $80k, a few days more and I was at $60k, I started to panic like any regular silly greedy guy and tried to profit off some swings only to lose more than I would profit from, months of sleepless nights later, with a lot less hair in my head, I finally decided to take it all out, at which point I had about $12k worth of crypto. I used that money to get me, my wife and my mom out of the country, I was also lucky to have dual citizenship thanks to my mom having been born in another country, so I could move to a first world developed european country instead of another struggling country in south america, I was able to set up proper bank accounts so that I could find good clients and make it easier for them to pay me my dues and still use crypto for those that were willing, and of course, I took my work back as a freelancer, although by this point my previous clients had found other people to work with. In the end things turned great, I suppose, I would not have been able to save up those same $12k while working as a freelancer back in Venezuela, not even close, that whole experience got me out of that awful country and way of life, still, I can't stop thinking that if I at least had gotten out at $80k, or even $60k, I would have a down payment on a decent house, were, even 1/3 of the price of it, easily... instead, I blew through it while moving to the new country and paying a year worth of rent plus a couple of work laptops for both me and my wife. This part of my life will always be a crazy memory to keep, and share with future friends I may make, so I felt like sharing it here as I have been watching the sub for a while, though I just lurk.
MicroStragegy’s Bitcoin Play is Just Smart Business, Nothing Else: CEO Explains
MicroStrategy has been featuring more in cryptosphere and it all started when it converted its primary asset base into Bitcoin. However, the business intelligence software provider is also staying aware of the possible swings in Bitcoin’s price and is ready to sell at a moment’s notice. Safety Amid an Economic Downturn Earlier this week, Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s chief executive, sat for an interview with Bloomberg, where he spoke about the firm’s shocking move to hold over $400 million in Bitcoin. There, he explained that they see Bitcoin as a safer asset, especially compared to cash and gold. Saylor explained in part that he chose to make the move to Bitcoin because he had seen the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on traditional assets. Before the pandemic hit, the firm had about $500 million in assets, which it had invested primarily in short-term government securities. Sadly, the pandemic caused yields on the securities to tumble, and Saylor knew that the company had to move into something more reliable. “Once the real yield on our treasury got to more than negative 10%, we realized that everything we are doing on P&L is irrelevant. We really felt we were on a $500 million melting ice cube,” he said. The company eventually found the safety it sought with Bitcoin. In July, MicroStrategy announced in a formal announcement that it had switched its primary asset base to the leading cryptocurrency, purchasing about 21,454 BTC for $250 million. Among other things, the Virginia-based tech giant highlighted that Bitcoin had proven itself a dependable store of value. In the weeks since then, MicroStrategy has doubled down. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it confirmed that it could purchase even more of the asset. However, that would only happen after assessing its cash needs and business strategy. Just Business for MicroStrategy Days later, the company purchased an additional 17,000 BTC tokens — bringing its total Bitcoin haul to about $425 million. Considering that it is putting a lot of its eggs in the crypto basket, Bloomberg was curious about whether Saylor was worried about Bitcoin’s famed volatility and how much a sharp price drop could gut his firm. However, Saylor brushed off any concerns. In part, he said: “We can liquidate it any day of the week, any hour of the day. If I needed to liquidate $200 million of Bitcoin, I believe I could do it on a Saturday.” Saylor added that the asset’s volatility isn’t much of a problem as he could quickly move away from it and get the company’s money back. The CEO also pointed out that he wasn’t committing to Bitcoin as a passion project. He noted that his firm’s decision to buy the asset was merely due to its proven stability over the past few months, and he would liquidate his company’s holdings if he saw some other alternative assets with greater yields. For now, however, Saylor is all-in on Bitcoin. The CEO further predicted that more companies would make similar moves, adding that private companies are currently in the right position.
This is a faction not real life events If you had to leave your country as fast as possible because you commit a crime , so you can't withdraw all your savings so how fast you can convert it to a bitcoin and can you make it untraceable and how much value you will if convert it back to real money if that even possible
Discovery World gets a lifeline from its chairman... shareholders get diluted (Friday, Oct 23)
Happy Friday, Barkada --
The PSE closed up 66 points to 6345 ▲1.1%.
The PSE has had a nice little 7.5% run the past 5 trading days, let's see how the week closes out. Remember, Converge IPO is on Tuesday! Shout-out to all the bitcoin hodlers out there. The recent run-up in price (up over US$13k today) must feel nice after Paypal announced it would incorporate crypto transactions into its payment platform (after being anti-crypto for a very very long time). Happy weekend!
[NEWS] Discovery World Corp [DWC 1.90 ▲18.75%] raises P304m in private share sale... the announcement of the sale was made before the start of trading yesterday, so the stock was halted for one hour to give traders a chance to digest the news. DWC develops, owns, and operates luxury resorts, like Discovery Shores Boracay and other resorts in Coron and Palawan. DWC sold 190m shares to “JT Perle Corp” for P1.60/share (the previous closing price). The shares came out of DWC’s authorized (but unissued) capital stock. DWC plans to use the proceeds of the sale for “working capital”. According to PSE rules, since the sale results in JT Perle Corp owning more than 10% of the outstanding shares of DWC, the deal must be approved by a vote of shareholders; DWC has arranged a special shareholders’ meeting on November 26 to approve the transaction and satisfy that rule.
MB:“JT Perle” is owned by the chairman of DWC, John Tiu, so this looks a lot like helping a cash-strapped corp keep the lights on during a pandemic than any kind of value-building strategic partnership. The DWC stock price has been depressed by the COVID crisis but not to the degree that one would anticipate for a luxury tourism-focused company during a pandemic. In fact, news of this investment by Tiu shot the stock up 18% to P1.90/share, a level that it hasn’t seen since literally the first weeks of the lockdown. There’s not a lot of volume here so the price action has a ton of noise and not a lot of signal, but it will be interesting to see how DWC deploys this fresh batch of funding. I’m going to look closely at DWC’s Q3 earnings.
[NOTE] A stock sale of “authorized but unissued stock” is dilutive... a sale like the one above, where DWC’s chairman, John Tiu, bought 190 million shares of DWC from DWC’s “authorized but unissued stock” is a dilutive transaction. “Authorized” stock just means that the theoretical existence of the stock has already been built into the legal documents of the company; stock that is authorized, but unissued, doesn’t factor into anything like dividends, or voting, or anything of that sort. It just acts as a warehouse of unsold stock that the company COULD issue and put into circulation in order to raise money. Once the stock is sold, it is converted from “authorized but unissued” to “authorized and issued”, and the number of shares that were sold/issued are added to the stock’s issued and outstanding shares.
MB:This kind of transaction is dilutive. For the sake of a simple example, say XYZ Inc has only two shareholders, John Tiu and you. XYZ has legal documents that authorize 20 common shares, but only 10 of XYZ’s shares have actually been sold and issued. John owns 5, and you own 5. You each own 50% of XYZ’s shares. Then, John makes a deal with XYZ Inc to buy an additional 5 shares out of XYZ’s 10 shares authorized-but-unissued stock. Since these shares act as “new” shares, their issuance adjusts the relative ownership of the company. Now John owns 10 shares, for 66% of the company, and you own 5 shares, for 33% of the company. That’s dilution. Your relative economic and voting power went down. That’s what just happened to DWC shareholders, and they loved it.
[NEWS] Rockwell Land [ROCK 1.52 ▲0.66%] signs JV with TGN Realty to develop “Rockwell North”... the Lopez Family’s real estate arm signed a joint venture agreement with the Nepomuceno Family’s TGN Realty to develop a 3.6 hectare plot of land in Angeles City, in Pampanga. The plan is for three residential towers, all surrounding a mall -- Rockwell’s first to be developed outside of the NCR. ROCK even indicated that the Angeles City development will be made in the spirit of the original Rockwell Center in Makati City.
MB:The residential side of the project is expected to raise P6.7 billion in sales, with turnover starting toward the end of next year. The development will eventually benefit from its proximity to the Clark International Airport and the North-South Commuter Railway that will connect Manila to Clark. From ROCK’s perspective, it’s probably just a lot safer to build outside of the NCR’s propensity to issue lockdowns and confusing/changing movement restriction orders, both in terms of preventing construction delays but also in terms of preventing mall shutdowns (and the related rent/lease squabbles).
[Q3] Belle Corp [BEL 1.47 ▲5.00%] profit ▼109% y/y... Q3/20 loss of P46m, down 109% from Q3/19 profit of P514m. According to the associated press release, BEL said that its 9-month revenue from its share of the City of Dreams in Manila, its “primary growth driver”, fell 86% because of the lockdown. BEL’s lottery operations also saw a substantial drop in revenues (down 71%), as did its real estate activities in the Tagaytay Highlands development.
MB:Like other companies that have too many eggs in the “luxury tourism and gaming” basket, BEL is suffering from being cut off from its mainland China cash cow. Revenues are not driven by local buyers, local bettors, or local tourists. It’s all targeting foreign customers from mainly China, but also Korea and Japan. These revenues will not come back until the wealthy feel comfortable enough with traveling to make overnight and weekend trips by international air travel palatable again. According to research, that recovery could be years away.
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How to sell xBricks for money (self post for mod approval)
Preface I've written this guide with those that are unfamiliar with crypto in mind, however it's still a lengthy process. I'm going to try to present this in a way where you don't have to learn how the underlying crypto technology works, but I will add in links to relevant concepts in case you're curious. This process was a lot more complicated before but I made a web interface to simplify it. At the time of writing this, FortniteBR BRICKs are worth 10 cents a piece. That makes 1000 bricks worth 100 bucks. The liquidity pool is about $14,000 at the time of writing, meaning that there's room in the market for you to hypothetically get $7,000 if you had a lot of BRICKs. If at any point throughout this process you need help, DM me! Misc. Resources That Might Be Helpful
A phone or phone emulator (so that you can run the reddit mobile app and collect your BRICKs)
Step 1: Setup On your desktop computer, install MetaMask. This is an Ethereum Wallet which will allow you to interact with the Ethereum Network and its many sidechains. More on this later. Follow the setup instructions in MetaMask. If you've never done this before, you'll need to create a new seed phrase. Video tutorial if you get stuck. YOUR SEED PHRASE IS THE KEY TO YOUR WALLET. ANYONE WHO HAS ACCESS TO YOUR SEED PHRASE CAN TAKE YOUR FUNDS. IF YOU LOSE YOUR SEED PHRASE YOU HAVE NO WAY TO RECOVER YOUR FUNDS. WRITE IT DOWN AND STORE IT IN A SAFE PLACE!!! NEVER GIVE IT OUT TO ANYONE -ANYONETHAT ASKS FOR YOUR SEED PHRASE IS TRYING TO SCAM YOU! DON'T FALL FOR IT! In the MetaMask interface, you'll see "Main Ethereum Network". This process uses two networks. One of them is the Rinkeby Testnet (where the BRICK tokens are natively) and one of them is the xDAI network which is where we will bridge the tokens to in order to exchange them for Dai, a token which is pegged to the price of the dollar. From the dropdown, select Rinkeby Testnet. If you're in the assets tab, you should see a thing that shows your ETH balance. Below this, you should see an "add token" button. Click it. Go to "Custom Token" at the top. In "token contract address," paste in the following: 0xe0d8d7b8273de14e628d2f2a4a10f719f898450a The other fields will autofill. Hit next. You'll now see your BRICK balance (which will be 0, you haven't transferred your bricks yet) in MetaMask if you've done everything right. You'll need Rinkeby Ether to cover transaction fees. Since we're on a testnet, the Ether is worthless which means people hand it out for free. You can get this Ether from a variety of places:
Anyone who has Rinkeby Ether to spare: Make a comment below so that those who need it can ask you. Thanks :)
Now it's time to get your BRICKs from your Reddit vault into your MetaMask wallet. WARNING: ALL CRYPTO TRANSACTIONS ARE IRREVERSIBLE. Your Ethereum address shows up under Rinkeby. It should be "0x" followed by a bunch of hex characters. Click on it to copy it to your clipboard. You now need to somehow get this to your mobile device. Email it to yourself, text it to yourself, whatever. On your Reddit mobile app home screen, click on your profile icon and then go to vault. You'll need to set this up and claim your tokens if you haven't already. Be aware that this is also technically an Ethereum wallet. Keep your seed phrase safe. Send however many BRICKs you want to sell to your MetaMask wallet. Check to make sure the addresses are the same, but don't worry too much about making a typo or whatever. The chances that you'd make a typo that would result in a valid Ethereum address are slim, if you get a character wrong it'll just tell you it's not a real Ethereum address and prevent you from sending. It may show an error when you try to send. This is somewhat rare but pretty normal. They often run out of testnet Ether. Come back later and try again. If it works properly, it'll take about a minute to go through. It may take longer than that. Once the transaction goes through, you'll see that you have an absurd amount of BRICKs in MetaMask. No, there wasn't a glitch. The people who wrote the code for BRICKs made the decimals of precision weird for some reason. It's off by a factor of 1018. This isn't a big deal. If you see Bricks and Ether (ETH) in your MetaMask wallet, proceed to the next step. If you're having issues, feel free to DM me. Step 2: Getting Your BRICKs from Rinkeby to xDai There's a LOT going on under the hood for this part (deets for those interested). Previously this required manually generating contract interactions, which is kind of a pain if you're new to Ethereum. I made a UI to make this easier (it generates the transactions for you, all you have to do is sign them with your wallet). This took way longer to do than you might guess, so feel free to help a homie out at: 0x4BCcC2569DD93C7dF43431A7b70db569dedB6187 Go to my tool. Hit connect. If you're on the Rinkeby network, it should show your balance in BRICKs. Enter the amount you want to bridge (probably all of them). If neither of us have made any mistakes, it should pop up with a request to spend your BRICKs. If there's any issue with this tool, DM me. This allows the TokenBridge contract to take your BRICKs and put them on the xDai network where you can sell them. This is the part where you'll get an error if you don't have any testnet ETH. Set the gas price to 1 (the suggested price is based on the Main Ethereum Network - it's way too high). After you approve that, it'll give you another thing to accept. This is the actual transaction where it'll bridge to xDai. Again, make sure the gas price is set to 1 and confirm the transaction. Add xDai to MetaMask Switch to the xDai network. We're going to add another token. Again, go to "add token" > "custom token" > "token contract address". Paste in: 0x2f9ceBf5De3bc25E0643D0E66134E5bf5c48e191 If the transactions have gone through, you should see your xBricks (the name for BRICKs that have been bridged to xDai) in MetaMask. If not, wait a bit for the transactions to go through. Sometimes there are slowdowns that cause bridging to take a while. Shouldn't take too long, though. Once that's done, you're ready for the next step. Step 3: Trading Your xBricks for xDai Go to Honeyswap. Hit "select a token." You'll need to paste in the xBrick address again. Here it is: 0x2f9ceBf5De3bc25E0643D0E66134E5bf5c48e191 Click xBrick. You'll need to flipflop the trade around by hitting the arrow button. xBrick should be on top. Type in the amount of xBricks you want to sell, or hit max to sell all of them. 1 xDai = $1. You'll need to hit approve first. Set gas price to 1 again. Then you can complete the trade by hitting swap. After a bit, the xDai should show up in your wallet. Step 4: Mainnet Everything on Mainnet costs actual money to do. It costs about 50 cents to make a transaction and it costs about 3 bucks to use an exchange like the one we just used. If you don't have mainnet Ether, you won't be able to do anything with your mainnet Dai (what xDai is called when it's bridged back to the main Ethereum network). You may be able to find someone to lend you some ETH to make these transactions with. Whatever you do, just be aware. If you still want to bridge your xDai into Dai, go here and make sure xDai is on the left. If it's not, go in the top right and select xDai chain. Enter the amount of xDai you want to bridge to mainnet and then hit transfer. Follow the prompts. This part may take up to an hour due to recent network congestion. After it's done, if you go back to Main Ethereum Network in MetaMask you should see your Dai. If you have a few bucks of ETH, you can use UniSwap to convert your Dai to even more ETH. Uniswap tutorial Things you can do with ETH
Earn money simply by browsing the web - ALL COUNTRIES
You earn "Peaches" - money - simply by browsing. There are some ads, but it's very limited. These peaches can later be converted into real products / gift cards / crypto. WEBSITE "Peaches" are earned differently from day to day. Currently, you get one every 60 seconds. Earlier it was 53, so it varies from time to time. You can earn additional Peaches by completing tasks. Today I got one for 4000, for simply clicking a link. Example of products: - Airpods Pro - Amazon, Steam, Airbnb gift cards - Discord Nitro - Bitcoin - And a lot more You can visit the website here non-referral: here Disclaimer: I am in NO way associated with this company. I gain a small percentages increase when people use my link. Other than that I have no financial gain when people are signing up.
The greatest wealth transfer of this century! An analysis: British-US-Chinese Empires: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum!
"Inflation makes you pay 50 dollars for the 20 dollar haircut you used to get for 5 dollars when you had hair!" Let's embark on a journey that made the United States the number 1 economy of the world.
1. Despite the British Empire's claim that it would for ever remain the leading empire,history can serve as a harbinger for what's to come...
At the peak of its power, in 1913, "the empire on which the sun never sets", controlled 25% of the planet's land mass and about the same percentage of the world's population. Britain was both the naval an imperial power of the 19th century, and between 1812-1914, its dominance resulted in relative peace in Europe and the rest of the world. The industrial revolution transformed Britain into the workshop of the world. By the start of the 20th century things changed as both Germany and the United States started to challenge Britain's economic and influential leadership. As often happened during human history such challenging lead to war and although Britain achieved its largest territorial influence after WW1, the war had destroyed much of its economic strength, with losses in industrial and military power marking the begin of its demise. During WW2, Japan occupied Britain's colonies, and after WW2, India, Britain's most valuable and populous possession, achieved independence. Much of the British Empire's influence is now enshrined in the Commonwealth Charter, stating shared values like democracy, human rights and the rule of law. The United Kingdom's pound sterling was its world's reserve currency during its reign and by controlling the supply of money, Britain was able to influence its global power. "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws!"Mayer Amschel Rothschild
2. The US Empire repeats this blueprint by claiming the U.S. Dollar's reserve currency status as its birthright!
The Federal Reserve Act. The Panic of 1907 triggered many American's belief that The Federal Reserve Act, passed by the 63rd United States Congress and signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson on December 23, 1913, was necessary for financial and economic stability. The law created the Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the United States. The Bretton Woods System. The FED ended immobile reserve issues and the inelastic currency problems and successfully internationalized the U.S Dollar as the global reserve currency. The usage of the prior nationally used U.S. Dollar expanded a first time when the Allies agreed to the terms of the Bretton Woods System, establishing the rules for commercial as well as financial regulations among the United States and its allies. Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Japan accepted the U.S. Dollar, which was backed by a gold exchange standard, making the U.S. Dollar "as good as gold". This was only possible because the United States controlled two thirds of the world's gold reserves. Soviet representatives, who claimed that institutions like the IMF and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) were Wall Street branches, didn't participate in Bretton Woods and later proved to be right, as the United States printed too much money (not backed by its gold reserves) to wage war on Vietnam, destroying a big part of the value of the U.S. Dollars held by its allies, due to the inflation of the U.S. Dollar money supply. Yet, the initial demand for U.S. dollars created the American way of life: a consumer driven economy fueled by products made outside the U.S. in return for U.S. Dollars. As the Allied countries couldn't really buy any "Made in America"-products, due to the fact that the United States' elites rather outsourced their manufacturing, they instead invested their hard labor into U.S. Treasuries. On August 1971, President Richard Nixon announced the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold, in a response to halt the Allied countries' continuous attempts to exchange their U.S. Dollars for Gold. By 1973, the Bretton Woods system was replaced by the current freely floating fiat currency system. The petro dollar system. The second wave of U.S. Dollar adoption was the result of the petro dollar, making the global trade of oil U.S. Dollar denominated. Every country on this planet needed and still needs oil to operate and grow its economy, creating an enormous growth in U.S. Dollar demand and like mentioned before, those dollars had to be earned. Especially China served the United States consumer model by producing almost everything Americans can buy in Wall Mart and other stores. By relying on the U.S. Dollar reserve currency status, the American elites have made the mistake of outsourcing manufacturing to China, as often predicted by Donald Trump in the 1980's. The y figured it was easier to just print wealth. The tradewar. President Donald Trump, decided it was time to bring jobs back to the U.S. and started an ongoing trade war with China, the country that supplied the U.S. consumer driven economy, and proud owner of $1.07 trillion in Treasury holdings. The trade war has negatively impacted the economies of both the United States and China and will most likely result in the decoupling of both economies. What is to come? My personal insights. I see huge problems for the U.S. and the rest of the western liberal democracies. But especially the United States, who's currency amounts to no less than 60% of all the world's reserve assets, is vulnerable if and when China who only accounts for 1 or 2 %, says it is time for change. Most likely we will experience another banking crisis, with or without Covid-19, and unfortunately a bigger one when compared to the 2008 dissaster. Did you know that the global debt tripled since then? Many economists and politicians advocate the end of the U.S. Dollar reserve currency system and predict a reset. Every financial system has a limited lifespan similar to a human live: it is created, it grows, it matures, and unfortunately, it ages, weakens and dies. It happened to the Brittish Pound Sterling, and I am afraid that the days of this financial hegemony are numbered as well. And I did write "afraid", why? History tells us that these transition periods are particularly dangerous and have often led to full-blown military conflicts if not world wars. The current wealth transfer, the result of manufacturing outsourcing to mainland China, impoverished the United States and destroyed its middle class. President Donald Trump's analysis that the U.S. needs a strong manufacturing base is correct, yet without its allies the United States will not be able to turn the tide. It took China decades to build its manufacturing base, and President Trump doesn't have the privilege of having the political luxury to design five year plans, as the United States capitalistic and political model specializes more on presidential campaigning and less on economic planning, which is exactly China's strength.
3. The Chinese 'digital' empire.
China is ideally positioned to become the new global power: it produces many of our products and dominates most supply chains. It has been hoarding gold and mines most of the Bitcoin. It might just have the right reserve assets to back its DCEP, the digital Yuan, which will be pilot tested during the 2022 Winter Olympics hosted by China. Despite the fact that the United States and other western nations might not want to adopt the Yuan or allow it to be part of the world's reserve assets, China can demand payment in Yuan for its products. It's that simple! This is why outsourcing is such as stupid economic voluntarily yet fatal policy. If you only print money and don't produce goods, how long will the world play ball? One of the results of Trump's trade war is that China and other countries such as Russia and Iran no longer want to be vulnerable to U.S. sanctions that come in the shape of being denied access to the financial system through Swift. The United States can indeed destroy a big part of Iran's economy, but Iran is now becoming a big cryptocurrency player. In other words, bullying those countries might work in the short-term, but in the long-term they will simply adopt a new standard: and I believe that the Yuan will likely play a major role in the financial system they will adopt. This trend means that the expansion of the demand in U.S. Dollars will stop and reverse, when countries no longer want to use the currency whose issuer can economically destroy them through sanctions. The alternatives for such countires are cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and many others, national CBDC's (Central Bank Digital Currencies), and the adoption of the digital Yuan. This digital Yuan will be attached to the One Belt, One road initiative, finding adoption whilst developing huge infrastructure projects that will lead to a Eurasian trading zone. If the U.S. Military leaves the Middle East, as Trump brings home troops, this will create the right conditions for China to emerge as the victor.
4. Surveillance Capitalism - Insights on the DCEP (Digital Currency Electronic Payment, DC/EP):
This centralized digital financial system works on blockchain and cryptographic principles and aims to increase the circulation of the RMB, in the hope it can become a reserve currency like the U.S. Dollar.
Created and sanctioned by the Chinese Government, it is the only legal digital currency in China.
The system offers Chinese regulators better monitoring abilities and will be an efficient tool against anonymous counterfeiting, money laundering and illegal financing. At the same time it reduces costs involved in maintaining and recycling bank notes and coins.
As mentioned above, China aims to bypass Swift, which it regards to be a U.S. entity, and will be able to collect real-time data related to money creation, bookkeeping, essential information for the implementation of monetary policies.
The pilot institutions for DCEP, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, will serve as a production test for China's new currency system, after which the DCEP will be distributed to large fintech companies such as Tencent and Alibaba to be used in WeChat Pay and AliPay. Transfers will not go through bank accounts, but through electronic wallets.
By mandating that all merchants who accept digital payments must accept DCEP, the DECP will become the most accepted digital currency in the world.
5. Sings of hope.
If the United States adopts blockchain and issues a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) backed by Bitcoin, they will have a reasonable chance to offer the western democracies a new type of dollar standard that can be an anchor versus the coming RMB. If not, I fear the worst is yet to come for the U.S. Dollar and its economy. Many smart American economists and Wall Street goeroe's have finally figured out the remarkable strength of Bitcoin, the world's first and most favorite digital form of gold. Some of the smartest investment capitalists like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffet have allocated more money into gold, a clear sign of trouble. Bitcoin might be a step too far for Warren Buffet, but rest assure that Wall Street investment management companies have figured it out by now, have you? You can expect more institutions to allocate a % of their portfolio's wealth into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as a hedge against the systemic risk in our global financial system, which will inevitable start feeling the effects of the trillions that have been printed. "Inflation makes you pay 50 dollars for the 20 dollar haircut you used to get for 5 dollars when you had hair!"
One year ago, was the first time I bought R$ 1.000 (US$ 244) in Bitcoin when 1 BTC = US$ 7.100. Today the value is US$ 9.700. So, I expected that those R$ 1000 would be at R$ 1360, but I was very wrong! The exchanges here in my country, they base the Bitcoin price in US$ dollar, they just convert it to R$ Real. At that time, 1 BTC = R$ 29.350, now days 1 BTC = R$ 55.500. This means that my original R$ 1.000 is now almost at R$ 1.900! That’s because Brazil is in a really bad political and economic situation and the price of dollar is all times high, making R$ Real devalued. That’s when it hit me. Now I understand why people on nations that is f*cking their money up buys BTC, it saves it from inflation! Recently the Halving happen and it hit me again, Bitcoin is a deflationary money! Every day it becomes a scarce resource, but the demand is the same, making the price go up! Bitcoin is not the future, it’s the present! It puts me in the control of my wealth instead of a bunch of incompetent nations and politicians!
https://preview.redd.it/al1gy9t9v9q51.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=b29a60402d30576a4fd95f592b392fae202026ca Hopefully any questions you have will be answered by the resources below, but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. If you're quite technically-minded, the Zano whitepaper gives a thorough overview of Zano's design and its main features. So, what is Zano? In brief, Zano is a project started by the original developers of CryptoNote. Coins with market caps totalling well over a billion dollars (Monero, Haven, Loki and countless others) run upon the codebase they created. Zano is a continuation of their efforts to create the "perfect money", and brings a wealth of enhancements to their original CryptoNote code. Development happens at a lightning pace, as the Github activity shows, but Zano is still very much a work-in-progress. Let's cut right to it: Here's why you should pay attention to Zano over the next 12-18 months. Quoting from a recent update:
Anton Sokolov has recently joined the Zano team. ... For the last months Anton has been working on theoretical work dedicated to log-size ring signatures. These signatures theoretically allows for a logarithmic relationship between the number of decoys and the size/performance of transactions. This means that we can set mixins at a level from up to 1000, keeping the reasonable size and processing speed of transactions. This will take Zano’s privacy to a whole new level, and we believe this technology will turn out to be groundbreaking!
If successful, this scheme will make Zano the most private, powerful and performant CryptoNote implementation on the planet. Bar none. A quantum leap in privacy with a minimal increase in resource usage. And if there's one team capable of pulling it off, it's this one.
What else makes Zano special?
You mean aside from having "the Godfather of CryptoNote" as the project lead? ;) Actually, the calibre of the developers/researchers at Zano probably is the project's single greatest strength. Drawing on years of experience, they've made careful design choices, optimizing performance with an asynchronous core architecture, and flexibility and extensibility with a modular code structure. This means that the developers are able to build and iterate fast, refining features and adding new ones at a rate that makes bigger and better-funded teams look sluggish at best. Zano also has some unique features that set it apart from similar projects: Privacy Firstly, if you're familiar with CryptoNote you won't be surprised that Zano transactions are private. The perfect money is fungible, and therefore must be untraceable. Bitcoin, for the most part, does little to hide your transaction data from unscrupulous observers. With Zano, privacy is the default. The untraceability and unlinkability of Zano transactions come from its use of ring signatures and stealth addresses. What this means is that no outside observer is able to tell if two transactions were sent to the same address, and for each transaction there is a set of possible senders that make it impossible to determine who the real sender is. Hybrid PoW-PoS consensus mechanism Zano achieves an optimal level of security by utilizing both Proof of Work and Proof of Stake for consensus. By combining the two systems, it mitigates their individual vulnerabilities (see 51% attack and "nothing at stake" problem). For an attack on Zano to have even a remote chance of success the attacker would have to obtain not only a majority of hashing power, but also a majority of the coins involved in staking. The system and its design considerations are discussed at length in the whitepaper. Aliases Here's a stealth address: ZxDdULdxC7NRFYhCGdxkcTZoEGQoqvbZqcDHj5a7Gad8Y8wZKAGZZmVCUf9AvSPNMK68L8r8JfAfxP4z1GcFQVCS2Jb9wVzoe. I have a hard enough time remembering my phone number. Fortunately, Zano has an alias system that lets you register an address to a human-readable name. (@orsonj if you want to anonymously buy me a coffee) Multisig Multisignature (multisig) refers to requiring multiple keys to authorize a Zano transaction. It has a number of applications, such as dividing up responsibility for a single Zano wallet among multiple parties, or creating backups where loss of a single seed doesn't lead to loss of the wallet. Multisig and escrow are key components of the planned Decentralized Marketplace (see below), so consideration was given to each of them from the design stages. Thus Zano's multisig, rather than being tagged on at the wallet-level as an afterthought, is part of its its core architecture being incorporated at the protocol level. This base-layer integration means months won't be spent in the future on complicated refactoring efforts in order to integrate multisig into a codebase that wasn't designed for it. Plus, it makes it far easier for third-party developers to include multisig (implemented correctly) in any Zano wallets and applications they create in the future. (Double Deposit MAD) Escrow With Zano's escrow service you can create fully customizable p2p contracts that are designed to, once signed by participants, enforce adherence to their conditions in such a way that no trusted third-party escrow agent is required. https://preview.redd.it/jp4oghyhv9q51.png?width=1762&format=png&auto=webp&s=12a1e76f76f902ed328886283050e416db3838a5 The Particl project, aside from a couple of minor differences, uses an escrow scheme that works the same way, so I've borrowed the term they coined ("Double Deposit MAD Escrow") as I think it describes the scheme perfectly. The system requires participants to make additional deposits, which they will forfeit if there is any attempt to act in a way that breaches the terms of the contract. Full details can be found in the Escrow section of the whitepaper. The usefulness of multisig and the escrow system may not seem obvious at first, but as mentioned before they'll form the backbone of Zano's Decentralized Marketplace service (described in the next section).
What does the future hold for Zano?
The planned upgrade to Zano's privacy, mentioned at the start, is obviously one of the most exciting things the team is working on, but it's not the only thing. Zano Roadmap Decentralized Marketplace From the beginning, the Zano team's goal has been to create the perfect money. And money can't just be some vehicle for speculative investment, money must be used. To that end, the team have created a set of tools to make it as simple as possible for Zano to be integrated into eCommerce platforms. Zano's API’s and plugins are easy to use, allowing even those with very little coding experience to use them in their E-commerce-related ventures. The culmination of this effort will be a full Decentralized Anonymous Marketplace built on top of the Zano blockchain. Rather than being accessed via the wallet, it will act more as a service - Marketplace as a Service (MAAS) - for anyone who wishes to use it. The inclusion of a simple "snippet" of code into a website is all that's needed to become part a global decentralized, trustless and private E-commerce network. Atomic Swaps Just as Zano's marketplace will allow you to transact without needing to trust your counterparty, atomic swaps will let you to easily convert between Zano and other cyryptocurrencies without having to trust a third-party service such as a centralized exchange. On top of that, it will also lead to the way to Zano's inclusion in the many decentralized exchange (DEX) services that have emerged in recent years.
Where can I buy Zano?
Zano's currently listed on the following exchanges: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/zano/markets/ It goes without saying, neither I nor the Zano team work for any of the exchanges or can vouch for their reliability. Use at your own risk and never leave coins on a centralized exchange for longer than necessary. Your keys, your coins! If you have any old graphics cards lying around(both AMD & NVIDIA), then Zano is also mineable through its unique ProgPowZ algorithm. Here's a guide on how to get started. Once you have some Zano, you can safely store it in one of the desktop or mobile wallets (available for all major platforms).
How can I support Zano?
Zano has no marketing department, which is why this post has been written by some guy and not the "Chief Growth Engineer @ Zano Enterprises". The hard part is already done: there's a team of world class developers and researchers gathered here. But, at least at the current prices, the team's funds are enough to cover the cost of development and little more. So the job of publicizing the project falls to the community. If you have any experience in community building/growth hacking at another cryptocurrency or open source project, or if you're a Zano holder who would like to ensure the project's long-term success by helping to spread the word, then send me a pm. We need to get organized. Researchers and developers are also very welcome. Working at the cutting edge of mathematics and cryptography means Zano provides challenging and rewarding work for anyone in those fields. Please contact the project's Community Manager u/Jed_T if you're interested in joining the team. Social Links: Twitter Discord Server Telegram Group Medium blog I'll do my best to keep this post accurate and up to date. Message me please with any suggested improvements and leave any questions you have below. Welcome to the Zano community and the new decentralizedprivateeconomy!
Why you should vote for Trump unless you live in a safe state
Both Biden and Trump are protectionists, so Biden isn't the lesser evil even in this regard.
Yes, immigration is great, but socialism is not. You can't have free immigration and welfare and the Democrats are eager to get more voters by flooding the borders (immigrants predominantly vote Democrat) and giving them free stuff. Giving the current trend of conservstives dying out and the youth being more liberal and the GOP getting into the White House only because of luckand the electoral college, it's clear the Democrats will soon dominate politics for a couple of terms and proably get some trifectas. The more poor people vulnerable to welfare the US gets in, the more welfare recipients there will be in the future.
There's no real tradeoff in favor of the Democratic nominees except for legalization of marijuana (the both nominees have a history if shifting positions and especially Harris used to be vocally against losenning of the drug laws, so it's hard to say whether they can be trusted).
There's fewer Republicans than Democrats, so voting for a gridlock (the only electable LP party nominee) is for the most part voting for Trump and the GOP.
Biden may die during his first term. Kamala could probably take over either as an acting pres or be elected as a 2024 Democratic pres candidate if Biden won't run for reection. She scored as the 3rd most socialist primary candiate behind Sanders and Warren and has a reputation of a pretty authoritarian (authoritarian left is the opposite of libertarianism) and dishonest and corrupt (just like Biden, Trump is a liar too, but at least didn't seem to go back on his pre-election promises much) person connected to the establishment and parasiting oligarchs using the state to destroy competition.
JoJo and Supreme's VP and nearly every other Libertarian running for public office are inelectable. They can't get those 5% they hope for and that would grant them looted tax money making them robbers just like the rest. She has a liberal neolibertarian and wants to open border on day one without destroying the welfare state first. The LP of the US has since the death of Childs and Rothbard has moved to the left and today they are nothing but delusional inherent statists who desire to become the leaders of the murderous state mafia. The platform additionally started to endorse unconditional free migration and became pro-choice and anti-death penalty, which aren't unanimous libertarian positions.
They waste millions of dollars for campaigning for unelectable candidates and thus diverting libertarian donations from think tanks such as CATO and Mises. Our future isn't politics, it's the Bitcoin and changing hearts and minds. Libertarian funds should be focused 100% on spreading libertarian ideas because they make a difference. Getting 2% in a FTP voting does not. Libertarian parties (which is an oxymoron) of the US, UK, Canada or Russia aren't contributing to liberty, they are destroying it by ecouraging people to waste votes instead to vote for a party that wants to enslave, murder and rob us less. As we who understand economy very well know, if our comparative advantage lies in changing hearts and minds because we've converted many people to our cause as opposed to occasionally winning in only regional elections after pouring of tens of millions into the LP over the past 50 years. Only a fool would think the state would voluntarily let us take it over or destroy it. If a libertarian party in France or Germany started to threaten the establishment parties, they would be immediately labeled radicals abd extremists (after all, we entertain ideas that are considered radical in today's corrupt leftist world) and banned. The only country where it would the Constitution probably prohibit is the US and in the US majority system would the change from above be impossible until the majority of the population would be libertarian and at that point they could surely secede from the state or create their own minarchist states, so winning the elections would be useless anyway. Furthermore, if the establishment sees a certain electorate doesn't care about them at all and will never vote for them, they start to care about them even less. If we weren't so stubborn, it is possible there would be a former VP of president Ron Paul debating Biden instead of a childish narcissist protectionist discrediting the US in front of the whole world. And the worst part is that he doesn't seem to be the greater of two evils, unfortunately it's contrary. It's better voting for him and for a gridlock than for the riots. The LP and libertarian organisation should try to endorse some people regarded as less bad for liberty (thus greatly raising attention to us) under condition they improve or don't become more tyrannical and stop the endorsement whrn they violate the terms. People like Jorgensen aren't aware of it, but in reality they are a red herring harming the libertatian cause rather than contributing to it and such inelectable parties should be discouraged and fought bevause there is an empirical as well as logical evidence that voting for them only wastes capitalists votes and therefore makes the crimes commited against us only more, not less severe.
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
I feel like this outcome is quite inevitable. CBDCs being created will actually allow bitcoin to be used everywhere as payment by default.
It seems we are moving to a world where all central banks are going to issue a digital currency while banks implement digital wallets to custody them. In other words we will see central bank stable coins in every country soon enough. For people to be able to send these central bank stable coins between bank wallets in different countries (for example sending a USD CBDC to a bank wallet in Singapore) these CBDCs will all need to be built on a single global blockchain otherwise international money transfer will become impossible. All CBDCs of the world will need to speak the same language and be able to be transferred globally between wallets. One solution is the lightning network. Ive heard it stated that any crypto can become lightning compatible so whether you have a CBDC on bitcoin or eth or on a private chain or a side chain, if that chain supports lightning then you will be able to send to and receive from any other chain that supports lightning. Lightning essentially becomes this protocol that connects all chains. With that being the case it then becomes very easy to imagine a world where everyone can just accept lightning payments, choose which currency they want to receive, and then anyone will be able to send any crypto to them while they receive their desired currency, all transactions and required DEX conversions completed on the fly in real time over lightning. In this sense bitcoin will live alongside CBDCs and people all over the world will be free to choose which crypto they send receive and hold in real time. Imagine being able to travel anywhere and not have to worry about your finances. Wherever you go on earth everyone accepts lightning and no matter what currency you have its sent and converted into whatever currency they accept. The notion of currency will change, no one will say what forms of payment they accept or what currency they accept anymore, all people will need is lightning. That seems like an amazing future giving people complete freedom of currency choice while allowing frictionless global commerce. If central banks want CBDCs to work globally they will need to support lightning and supporting lightning allows bitcoin to live alongside CBDCs allowing bitcoin to be used everywhere CBDCs will be used. Finally bitcoin will be accepted everywhere by default.
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Bitcoin Money: How to Convert Bitcoins to Dollars - Part 1